Monday's Uranium Bounce — Friday's Washout Was the Entry

The week in one read

Friday washed out uranium longs (PDN -4.5%, DYL -3.4%, BOE -3.3%). No news — just positioning. Monday reversed it with conviction: PDN +4.2% to $10.55, BOE +4.8% to $1.52, DYL +3.1% to $1.48. Volume confirmed: buyers stepped in at the washout lows.

The message: the uranium floor is structural, not sentiment.

Three themes driving the tape

1. Lithium — the cycle bottom narrative

PLS $4.30 → $4.58 → $4.72 across the week (+9.8%). CXO +13%. MIN +6.7%. Supply rationalisation meets accelerating structural demand (data centre backup, EVs, grid storage). The floor is in.

Levels: PLS $4.50–$4.60 support, $5.00 psychological gate. CXO $0.28–$0.30 bid.

2. Defence — the V-bounce that held

DRO crashed -13.2% July 28 (37.7M volume). Bottomed $1.695 July 31. V-bounced to $2.28 (+34% in 5 sessions). Friday pullback to $2.18 on light volume (8.3M) — structure holding.

Levels: DRO $2.00–$2.08 pullback zone. Invalidation: heavy break below $1.695.

3. Uranium — the quiet base

PDN built a base $10.10–$10.60. BOE $1.40–$1.45. DYL $1.42–$1.48. The bounce off Friday's lows had volume. Hyperscaler nuclear PPAs + SMR pipeline + supply deficit = structural bid.

Levels: PDN $10.50 support, $11.00 resistance. BOE $1.50 support.

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