Pulse

ASX 200 closed Mon at 9,010.9 (+0.1%), above MA50 8,979 and MA200 8,812, ~2.8% off the 52w high 9,271.6.

Materials mixed: BHP −0.6%, FMG −1.4%, S32 +1.6% on 14M shares; banks soft, CBA −1.8%; CSL +0.9% the defensive bright spot.

NMG +5.0% on 41.9M shares — rare-earth momentum still running.

PDN 11.67 (−0.3%), DYL 1.635 (−1.8%), BOE 1.53 (−0.3%): uranium names drifting; DYL is below its MA200 (1.81), BOE only just above (1.48).

HSI 25,413 (−0.9%), still under MA200 25,654 — longer-term trend not repaired; −9% off the 52w high.

Tencent 435.4 (−0.7%), Alibaba 109.5 (−0.1%), Meituan 80.6 (+0.7%), Xiaomi 26.92 (−2.1%) on 170M shares.

SPY 765.96 (−0.6%), QQQ 718.36 (−0.1%) — modest fade, narrow leadership.

TSLA 368.16 (+4.0%) the standout; NVDA 225.73 (−2.0%) capped tech; Nasdaq 26,421 still above MA50.

Gold easing: GLD 399.72 (−1.7%), futures ~4,400; TLT flat, 10Y ~4.81% creeping higher.

USDJPY dropped to 153.9 (−1.5%) — sharp yen strength overnight, the classic risk-off tell.

Equities not panicking but leadership is thinning: metals/energy carrying, tech pausing, gold off highs.

Yen bid + gold pullback + rising 10Y = financial conditions tightening at the margin; stay selective, not defensive.

Uranium complex looks tired short-term: PDN still above its MA50 (10.22) but DYL and BOE are the weak links.

Watch whether HSI can reclaim MA200 — until then treat HK bounces as tactical only.