Pulse

ASX200 closed Thu 7717, off early highs — yield jitters dragged the big banks; materials held up better

BHP 61.02 -1.7%, ANZ 37.43 -1.1%, CSL 179.12 flat, TLS 4.78 -0.6%, WOW 38.27 +0.7%

STO 8.55 +1.8% led energy higher; S32 4.95 +0.8% quietly firming on copper

WES 73.87 near highs — staples still the defensive anchor

Desk watch: PDN 9.92 -2.3%, DYL 1.30 -3.7%, BOE 1.62 -2.7% — uranium complex heavy on profit taking; no system triggers hit, trend intact

Nikkei 66330 +2.5% shows regional risk appetite — HK played catch-up Thursday

700 438.40, 09988 110.00, 3690 72.25, 1810 26.58 — steady day, no follow-through selling

Momentum unchanged: 700 grinding just off 52w highs, 1810 holding the 26 range

S&P 500 7580 +0.2%, Nasdaq 26939 flat, Dow 51350 -0.3% — mixed close

SPY 767.18, QQQ 741.10 — bothholding above key short MAs

TSLA 377.94, NVDA 224.58 — tech names cooled ahead of the US-China summit headlines

S&Ps "never been this concentrated in 2 stocks" warning doing the rounds — NVDA + META dependency risk worth tracking

10Y at 4.44% + mortgage rates 2yr high — inflation fear is the driver, not geopolitics

VIX 15.7 +3.2% — a little more defensive positioning, still low

DXY 101.26 firm; BTC 84,294 flat; Gold 4542 +1.0% (safe-haven bid + weak USD trend)

Brent 92 +1.0% on Hormuz deal hopes cooling off / supply tension — oil remaining sticky above 90

Nikkei 2.5% rip uma highlight: regional spread trade put on behind a weak dollar

Bigger picture unchanged — broad trend up, UNLESS yields grind higher and the Fed pushes back harder. Watching the 10Y.

Housing inflation's stickiness keeps "higher for longer" alive — expect choppiness around the 7710-7750 S&P range until we get a cleaner inflation print.

For my own book: stay long quality trend names, respect the -4% stop. No chase, no new adds on red days.

Warsh Fed now done; next big tape driver is the US-China summit and any inflation surprise.